Austin ISD is partnering with Davis Demographics to present its annual demographic study at tonight's board work session.
Who: AISD representatives and City Demographer Ryan Robinson
What: Brief overview of the report, followed by a Q&A
When: Media availability at 10:30 a.m. today, Monday, Jan. 11
Where: Austin ISD, 1111 W. 6th St., Ste. A-230
Background: Each year, the district commissions a demographic report to identify and inform the district of student population trends in the community and how these trends may affect future student populations. The projections are provided to assist the district in determining facility adjustments that may be necessary through the Facility Master Plan implementation process to accommodate changes in student populations. This demographic report has been prepared by Davis Demographics & Planning.
A copy of the report, "Ten Year Student Population Projections by Residence - Fall 2016 - 2025," was delivered to the Board of Trustees on Dec. 17.
Key findings of the demographic report are as follows:
· District student populations are expected to decline annually over the next ten-year period. The SY 2025 residential student count is projected to be 77,628 students, a reduction of 6,140 students from SY 2015 student counts. This represents a 7.4 percent net decrease over the ten-year period.
· The greatest declines will be seen in the elementary and middle school grade levels, with an anticipated decline of approximately 2,750 (-6%) and 2,100 (-13%) students, respectively, over the ten-year period.
· AISD experienced a reduction in student population in SY 2013 (1,234 students), SY 2014 (647 students) and again in SY 2015 (1,192 students) after several years of consistent growth. These reductions occurred primarily at the Pre-Kindergarten and Kindergarten grade levels. The declines at these grade levels can be attributed to decreasing birth rates in the area and a lower birth rate- to-kindergarten (five years later) relationship, or market share.
· Lower elementary student counts will translate to losses at all grade levels in subsequent years and drive lower projections through the end of the ten-year period.
· Middle school student counts are expected to decline 13 percent, due to smaller elementary student counts matriculating through to secondary school.
· It is anticipated that high school enrollment will remain stable over the first eight years of the study, when smaller student counts begin high school.
· Student growth from new and planned future residential developments in the District is expected to be limited due to the anticipated high cost of projected future housing. An estimated 11,337 potential units are expected to be developed over the ten-year period, however, only a third of these new housing starts are single-family residential units. The balance of the planned developments are condominiums and apartments, which have much lower student yield than single-family.
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Austin ISD is the largest school district in Central Texas, serving more than 83,000 students at 130 schools. Follow AISD on Twitter at @AustinISD or on Facebook atfacebook.com/austinisd.