Today, Austin ISD released its annual demographic report.

The report shows the district will see student population increases in northwest, far south and southeast Austin. Some schools, such as Blazier, Doss, Hill and Menchaca elementary schools, are expected to be above capacity. Overall, the district expects an average annual reduction in student population of less than 1 percent over the next decade.

AISD works with Davis Demographics & Planning each year to analyze birth rate and housing trends within the district's boundaries in order to plan for the years ahead.  

The study shows that affordability issues will continue to affect the district's population as families move out of the central city and into the far south, southeast and northwest regions of the district and beyond.

"Austin continues to have fewer families living in the central city area, as they migrate to more affordable options outside the city," said AISD Assistant Director of Planning Services Beth Wilson.

AISD can expect on average about 600 fewer students each year due to multiple factors, including a lack of affordability and lower birth rates.  

During the economic recession, beginning in 2008 and trending through 2012, Austin began seeing lower birth rates with the sharpest decline occurring in 2011. These smaller class sizes will continue to affect elementary schools through 2020, begin to affect middle schools after 2020, and eventually high school enrollment by 2023.

AISD's data shows only about 25 percent of students who did not re-enroll in the district in school year 2014-15 enrolled in charter schools. The majority of students that left the district enrolled in other school districts.

While the city of Austin continues to grow, much of that growth includes young adults and retirees who do not have school-aged children.

Because AISD knows that many families must move beyond the district's boundaries to find affordable housing, last year the district began accepting out-of-district transfers. Families who live outside AISD's boundaries can apply for their children to enroll at any of AISD's schools that have capacity. Submission of tuition free out-of-district transfer requests for the 2016-17 school year begins Feb. 1.

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Austin ISD is the largest school district in Central Texas, serving more than 83,000 students at 130 schools. Follow AISD on Twitter at @AustinISD or on Facebook at facebook.com/austinisd.